Despite significant improvements in agriculture over the past sixty years, a Cornell study reveals that climate change has lowered worldwide farming production by twenty-one percent. Extreme weather and heat damage the global agricultural sector in multiple ways: increases in the number of fires, soil erosion due to stronger winds along with the changes in rainfall patterns, and biodiversity loss.
Allowing scientists to create new species resistant to climatic conditions, the genetic diversity of plants has always been an essential factor to farm productivity. However, because of global warming, a quarter of all wild species are expected to disappear within the next 50 years. With only 150 commonly cultivated plant species left—of which only 4% provide more than half of the food consumed by humans—farming is in a fragile state.
Simultaneously, farmers have to deal with an average loss of 1.8 million acres of farmland each year in America, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture. Indeed, heat waves, whose frequency has tripled since the sixties according to the EPA, incite a growing number of forest fires, ravaging thousands of hectares of cropland across the globe. Severe rainfalls also constitute a threat, as they can destroy entire harvests and generate a high risk of water erosion. Hydric erosion directly impacts soil’s nutrient layer and causes it to slide into rivers under water pressure, thus considerably reducing farmland.
In just three decades, there will be two billion extra mouths to feed, necessitating over a seventy percent increase in global food production, as estimated by the Food and Agriculture Organization. Furthermore, we need to do so without endangering the environment and with less and less land available for agriculture. Therefore consumption of foods that require large sums of water, energy, and land, in these times of drought and prolonged heat waves, is expected to drop considerably. Such foods include meats, fruits, and nuts. In addition, the fragility of certain crops, fruits in particular, makes them more sensitive to the increase of extreme weather and therefore will decline in production.
According to many specialists, such as Eric Amonsou, these foods should be replaced by leguminous products like beans and lentils, cereals, tubers, and leafy vegetables, as these crops are able to adapt to climatic variations and grow in both humid and arid environments. Species rich in micronutrients such as vitamins, zinc, iron, and other minerals will be widely eaten, enabling us to lower our food consumption since they are more nutritious than conventional foods.
Shockingly, the main future dietary change is that worldwide insect consumption is predicted to rise considerably. With sales valued at $688 million in 2018 and estimated to reach $1.4 billion by 2024, the insect market is expanding rapidly. Alternative protein-rich sources for humans and livestock, they serve many purposes, and are not energy-intensive.
The fragility of our farming systems, underscored by a twenty-one percent decline in global production, signals a need for action. The looming threat of biodiversity and widespread farmland erosion further accentuate this vulnerability. Feeding a growing population in the coming decades requires nothing short of a paradigm shift, with increased production of resilient crops like legumes and insect consumption illuminating a sustainable path forward. As we navigate this critical juncture, embracing innovative solutions and fostering adaptability will be key to securing the future of global agriculture and food security.
